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Friday, January 28, 2011

If world trade is in a nosedive, and it is, is Chinese growth claim false?

If World Trade Is Improving

Tip of the hat to PatrickGandy at rtr.org for his post

The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets

Posted 2011-01-28 09:21
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread

If World Trade Is Improving....

Why is the Baltic Dry Index playing cliff-diver?

I know there's a capacity (specifically, overcapacity) issue in the ship business, but this is just plain bad.  How do you make money on these vessels at that sort of pricing?  The decline since September, when people were pointing to a rebound starting, is stunning - and disturbing.

Yes, the solution to too much capacity and low prices is low prices - people go under, then capacity comes off, and price goes up.  But remember, the mantra we keep hearing is that the economy worldwide is growing so fast.... well, if it is, why is it that bulk carriers aren't loaded to the gills and able to maintain prices?

As an anecdote I also hear regularly from associates of mine who are involved in the goods trade across national boundaries.  There was a set of memos that was circulating around the holidays about expected price increases for non-bulk (e.g. container) shipments; I am now hearing that these have been rescinded.

Perhaps all is not what it appears.... especially over in China.

Lest you're inclined to believe in the "Growth Story" in China, let me point out that they apparently got caught attempting to claim Top Gun footage as having come from a military exercise.  Yes, really.

Faking military exercises?  Is there anything real in Chinese "statistics" and "claims"?

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