August 26, 2011
The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.
"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."
The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.
o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.
o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.
o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:
1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.
2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.
o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.